Monthly Briefing: October

For all the talk about artificial intelligence replacing workers, some American small businesses are reporting a different experience. A recent study from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found that 25% of surveyed small businesses said AI was helping them create permanent jobs, while only 6% reported reducing staff because of it. The findings suggest that AI might not be the job killer many people fear.

Small businesses are increasingly using AI to handle everyday tasks like customer service, paperwork, marketing, and research. For a business with only a few employees, saving time on these tasks can make a big difference. Instead of spending hours on administrative work, owners can focus on finding customers, improving services, and growing their businesses. That growth can also create opportunities to hire more people.

Of course, AI will affect industries differently, and some jobs will still face the risk of automation. The Chamber's findings also reflect what businesses reported, rather than proving that AI has increased employment overall. But there is something encouraging about smaller companies finding ways to use new technology to their advantage. AI may change how Americans work, but it could also help create businesses and jobs that didn't exist before.

- A. R. Aniket Shafin.

Just two weeks away, the midterm elections stand as a barrier to both parties’ agendas. Democrats are dead-set on stopping President Trump’s executive actions, and Republicans are fighting to push their agenda over the next two years to complete the President’s term and his agenda. While the Democratic Party seems confident in their ability to take the House, I’d like to offer an interesting, but maybe destructive, possibility to refute their ultimate confidence in the results of the election.

As we saw in the 2016 presidential election, polls were biased toward Clinton winning. However, we are clearly aware of what resulted later despite those polls. While Democrats are confident in their ability to win the House, and even possibly the Senate, I’d warn that the guarantee is not necessarily in sight, as historically, Republicans don’t engage as much in those polls and are known to turn out to vote mostly on Nov. 3, while Democrats are more likely to use other methods, like early voting or vote-by-mail.

While I definitely see the possibility of the House flipping, I'm more hesitant to assume the Senate will flip. By number, according to the Cook Political Report, more Republican Senate seats are in play than Democratic ones. Regardless, the Republican Party maintains a larger cash pool for these last two weeks than the Democrats, which I believe could influence last-minute decisions that will primarily affect the votes that come in on November 3rd.

- Gavin Galanti

In an extraordinary reversal of American foreign policy, President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Russian president Vladimir Putin to release more than 300,000 metric tons of Russian diesel into American and global markets, with millions more expected to follow. The administration has also temporarily eased sanctions on Russian diesel, potentially reopening a revenue stream for Moscow. The reason behind this is economic relief with diesel prices soaring amid the conflict with Iran.

The administration is hoping this will lower prices, but that is to be seen. The greater concern is geopolitical, as for years Washington has sought to restrict Russian energy revenue to stop the war in Ukraine. Now Russian forces were just given a check to continue the war with more equipment. It comes with a greater question as well as what credibility do American sanctions have if they can be relaxed when economic pressure becomes inconvenient?

- Jayden Wielgosz

On Tuesday, October 27th, 2026, Israelis will head to the polls for the first time since the devastating October 7th terror attack of 2023. In a Times of Israel article posted on October 15th, a poll suggested that Mr. Netanyahu’s chief competitor, leader of the liberal Zionist party “Yashar”, Gadi Eisenkot, would come out on top. As Israel is a parliamentary democracy, the question would be whether the pro- or anti-Netanyahu parties receive enough seats to form the next government.

What further complicates this is that the Arab List (Ra’am) and Joint List have been ruled out by both sides as governing partners; under this poll, that would leave 13 of the 120-seat Knesset outside the projected governing coalitions. As it currently stands, according to the poll, the pro-Netanyahu parties would have 49 seats to Eisenkot’s 54. With those 13 seats excluded from the coalition calculations, and the 4 possible seats to be won by the politically independent party “The Reservists”, the most likely outcome would be a hung parliament. One way around this may be that Eisenkot’s bloc could receive outside support from the Joint List through a confidence-and-supply agreement, but this could leave the government vulnerable if the Joint List withdraws its support during the term, potentially causing a snap election.

- Tom Paprzycki

For almost eight decades, European security has rested upon one fundamental security partner. The United States. Today that partner is waning in its support, and Europe is increasing its scrutiny on the assumption that the United States will be there in the event of war. Russia's continued war in Ukraine has exposed significant weaknesses in European defense capabilities, from ammunition shortages to limited industrial production.

Meanwhile, uncertainty from the American government about the defense of Europe is only intensified by the fact that Europe can't even defend itself. European leaders are increasing military spending and creating closer military cooperation, but spending alone won't solve decades of reliance on a military giant. Creating that infrastructure will take decades. The greater challenge, however, is maintaining unity. NATO's strength has never been solely military superiority but the collective conviction that an attack on one is an attack on all. Europe must now confront an uncomfortable question: can an alliance built upon American leadership remain effective if that leadership becomes uncertain?

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