On July 7 and 8, NATO leaders touched down in Ankara for the alliance's 36th summit and its second ever hosted by Turkey, more than two decades after Istanbul welcomed the same crowd back in 2004 for their first NATO summit. On paper, the agenda looked familiar with defense spending, Ukraine, industrial capacity, and ability. In practice, this summit carried a different weight. It landed at a moment when Turkey, NATO’s most complicated member, has become even more complicated in more recent times. They have become the alliance's largest arms exporters, all while Ukraine grinds on, and fallout from the US-Iran conflict reshaped Middle Eastern policy.
Add to that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, who has spent years questioning NATO and the purpose of the alliance, hinted he might not have even attended; luckily, he did end up going. By the time the two-day summit ended, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was calling it a “Tremendous success,” and even Trump described “tremendous unity” among NATO members. Which is very surprising and uplifting to hear from NATO’s most important leader and its most major critic.
Why Turkey, Why Now
Turkey's role in NATO has always been a little uneasy. It has the second-largest army by enlisted soldiers, and sits in arguably one of the most vitally important territories right in between Europe, the Middle East, and Russia. Yet it clashes regularly with fellow members due to the Turkish relations with Russia, NATO’s main adversary, and many other squabbles, like the Kurdish minority. What has changed more recently is the military capacity of Turkey. Ankara has spent the past decade building up drone and weapons exports that now rival Western weapons manufacturing companies. That exact ability has made Turkey a natural host for this summit, as, out of all NATO members, they are arguably the most advanced in drone warfare. Hosting also lets Erdoğan project a role as a bridge builder between Washington, Europe, and the wider region at a moment when that really does carry value with all the tension between them. Turkey has become increasingly interesting to the alliance due to Trump's Iran war and him expanding the F-35 program back to Turkey. Turkeys seem to have more and more leverage due to their strategic position, making them the best candidate for a summit of the alliance.
The Spending Fight and Who Showed
The defense spending debate that has trailed NATO for years was the center of the agenda in Ankara. Only five members have hit the alliance's newer 3.5% of GDP for core defense spending. Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Greece. Most others are still climbing. Trump used the run-up to this summit to again criticize NATO members, such as Germany's defense spending and Spain's, calling it "ridiculous” just before arriving. A reminder that Trump's Washington has not softened on the security burden being shared. Beyond politics, the summit produced real numbers. NATO Members announced “more than $50 billion in new procurements” and a goal of expanding collective arms manufacturing and innovation. Alongside this, there was also a dedicated investment of $40 billion to be spent in the next 5 years on counter-drone capabilities. This was a direct response to the drone warfare in Ukraine and on the Ukraine front specifically, NATO pledged 70 billion euros in military assistance to Kyiv.
The guest list signaled how far NATO’s orbit has expanded over the years beyond its 32 member states. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended, as did South Korean president Lee Jae-myung, both representing countries with major interests in NATO. Ministers from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and several Gulf states made appearances showing how the alliance increasingly frames itself as a hub for democracies.
The Verdict and Skepticism
Rutte and Trump both left Ankara using similar language of unity, success, and momentum. That's the story NATO wants to tell. But the underlying tensions that have defined the past years did not disappear because of one summit. Spending gaps between members remain wide. Questions about long-term US troop levels in Europe have not been solved and have been questioned. And Turkey's own position vital to NATO is still as odds frequently, and it will most likely continue even after this summit. The most interesting question after this summit is whether Turkey's growing defense industry weight is quietly making it more central to NATO than the surface would show.
Until next time,
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